Art Douglas (Ph.D, Professor Emeritus, Creighton University's Atmospheric Science Department) gave his prediction for the growing season in the Pacific Northwest. Douglas has been a regular at this event since the mid 70's. The short version:
-----In general, it's a coin toss. El Nino is not acting in normal pattern. The models are all over the board. His conclusion, with no real confidence, is that El Nino will build slightly over the spring and early summer, and then start fading.
----We likely will not have any more arctic breakouts that will effect our region this year.
----We can expect a dryer and warmer February than is normal (whatever that is). Best chance for rain will be in April (could be problematic for seeding). August may see active weather pattern (not good for harvest around here).
----Fall may be dry again (not good for seeding). Weather pattern may revert to more "normal" in late fall and winter.
----California is going to get a lot of rain, from now through early spring, and we will get some. It appears California will have another year of flooding, sliding, and burning.
----Temperatures will be warmer in general although we may have a cool spring.
The auditorium was full, and I would guess that there is more than one interpretation of Douglas' forecast. The micro-climates associated with these hills will probably play big this year. We will not want to squander opportunity to plant and harvest, in what is likely going to be a volatile weather year.
Douglas explains climate change in terms of sunspot activity, cycles, earth's tilt and position with the sun, and ocean temperature. It's all integrated and complex relationships. He states that human activity has added CO2, but I get the impression that it's not the driver in climate change. Some tid-bits I gleaned:
----It was recently broadcast that CO2 levels have never been as high as they are today. Douglas showed a chart that went back 400,000 years that shows several periods with twice as much CO2 in the atmosphere. We live is such a micro moment of time.
----The earth tilt ranges approximately 5 degrees. This angle, along with the earths position in the orbit around the sun impacts where and what intensity, energy strikes the earths atmosphere.
----Sun flare intensity is lessening. Less energy reaching the earth will have a cooling effect.
----We have been in a warming phase for a long time. It appears we are peaking out and may be preparing for a long term cooling trend.
----The volume of ice has not changed much since the 1890's. Possibly a slight increase in the total. The northern hemisphere has been losing, while the southern hemisphere is gaining.
----When the ocean warms it gives up CO2 to the atmosphere. When the ocean cools it will take up CO2 from the atmosphere. The ocean has a huge amount of CO2.
Lessons learned for our operation: Nothing! STAY THE COURSE of investigating and applying soil building practices as quickly as feasible. This will trend to buffering climate extremes. These will translate into better moisture holding capacity that produces better crops with less erosion in a fickle environment. Hopefully these practices will evolve into less herbicide and fertilizer inputs as well.
The remainder of the Expo was a spent talking to seed company representatives about cover crop cultivars and their availability. Everything I heard sounded as if supplies were adequate locally, with maybe a weeks delay for cultivars not stocked. I'm getting closer to what I think we need for cultivars in our spring 2015 planting attempt. We may or may not get our small seed box mounted this spring. Although it would be handier with a separate small seed box, our main box is set up to handle the separation of large and small seed cultivars.
