Regenerate the EcoSystem

    Regreening the desert [47:30min]  This link is a video that I found interesting and gives hope to those of us attempting to rebuild what has been lost through 100+ years of destructive, misguided farm practices and programs.   John D. Liu, the photographer and narrator, made a couple of compeling statements in this video.  

    One:  The source of wealth is the functional ecosystem.  The products & services we develop from that are derivatives.  It's impossible for the derivatives to be more valuable than the source, and yet, in our economy as it stands, the products & services have monetary value, but the source, the functional ecosystem have zero. [38:38-39:32]  This is not sustainable.  It promotes the destruction of our ecosystem.

    Two:   Money is a belief system.  There is nothing wrong with money.  The problem is, what is money based on.  If money is based on a functional ecosystem, the future will be beautiful.  If we continue to base money on goods and services, we'll turn everything into a desert. [40:40-41:28]   Unfortunately, this has been the path mankind has taken over human history resulting in the destruction of great societies; however, we now have the communication capability and the knowledge base to improve the outlook for the future.

EFFECTS OF FIRE ON SOIL HEALTH

     Fire has always been controversial.  In the past I have used it, and may, in a rare circumstance use it again.   With the equipment we have available to us now, fire is an outdated, archaic practice.
     It has been obvious to me for many years that fire was destructive to soil health.  Denuding a field by any means, negatively impacts soil.  Fire not only removes the litter that, at some point in time will become part of the organic component of the soil, but it also burns some of the SOM already present.  The soil, losing its cover, is exposed to the natural elements and become warmer in the summer and colder in the winter.  Bare soil effects natural processes, some associated with temperature extremes, that impact moisture available to the soil as well as moisture in the soil.  This in turn effects the soil biota, that effects nutrient cycling, which has an effect on raising crops.  This is not linear as the statement may insinuate, but is a complex interrelationship of many elements.  We are slowing gaining the understanding that processes resulting from less tillage, and more cover is basic to improving soil health.



   
   

Climate & Water Vapor

     Throughout this past year there has been numerous reports of rainfall in excessive amounts in many different locations throughout the US.  It seems like reports have come in from everywhere except the Inland Northwest, --us.   In October there were reports of flooding along the Snoqualmie river in western Washington.  Now it is no surprise to hear that the Snoqualmie floods.  That's an annual spring event when the snow pack starts melting off the western slopes of the Cascade Mts, --but in October!!!(???), that's most unusual.  Last fall I read where there were 10's of thousands acres of farmland flooded along the Missouri River this past year and that currently there are thirty thousand acres of farmland still under water and expected to stay underwater until April when the 2020 flood season normally starts.  In recent years I have been watching/listening to reports of heavy rainfalls throughout the US.  They use to be associated with thunder storms on the Great Plains and the areas around the southeast and the gulf hit with the occasional hurricane.  Not any more.  Heavy rainfall events are now being reported west of the Rockies with southern California receiving heavy rainfall events as well as along the Oregon coast and now maybe the Washington coast. West of the Cascade Mts., particularly Seattle (the Emerald City) is noted for it's rainy weather, and of coarse, the Olympic Rainforest is a historical feature of Washington, so rain is not a new phenomenon; however, the amounts and in the time received may be changing.  I can't even imagine the damage to our farmland should we start receiving rains that measure in the inches per hour.  These thoughts  play a part for the passion I have to armor our fields and increase moisture infiltration.  How long will it be before we have to endure one of these high volume rain events?  There was a time that I thought our location between the Rocky and Cascade mountains would shield us from any devastating weather event, but, I'm not so sure any more.
      Atmospheric rivers (of water) seem to be more prevalent around the globe.  We mostly hear about what is going on in the US, but other places are getting similar weather events.  In one of her presentations, Dr. Christine Jones, makes reference to the excessive atmospheric moisture, and questions why more attention is not given to that greenhouse pollutant.  I did a quick google search of atmospheric pollutants and found that neither CO2 or moisture was listed as a pollutant.  There are caveats, to these and other elements, depending on the authors specific mindset.  The media gives us the impression that the debate is over, but what I see in the weeds, is that the debate is anything but over.  There is a lot more than CO2 involved with our climate and we don't understand what that is.

MAN and CLIMATE

    I have been skeptical about man being able to influence the climate, but I have become a believer.  Increasing atmospheric CO2 and NO3 levels are just a part of what I see as being influenced by man.  Desertification appears to me to be a bigger problem, and we, in the worldwide agricultural community, are a major part of the problem, -- along with the spatial needs generated by 7.9 billion people.  (In my lifetime world population has more than tripled from 2.2b)
 
      The earth's climate is dynamic, changing continually.  Natural cycles resulting from the earth's tilt, relationship to other planets, their orbits, and earth's position to the all important sun and our moon, have powerful influence on the earth's climate.  Thirty years of lecturing by Dr. Art Douglas has left no doubt in my mind on the importance of these cycles.
      Our use of fossil fuels probably is contributing to CO2 buildup that so many are claiming to be the major cause of climate change.   It's the goto energy source for 7.9b people with an infrastructure that gradually developed over more than a 100 years, and we probably ought to change, --but to what?  I hope I'm wrong but it seems that we have taken a hiatus on working out the problems with fusion reaction, and  fission waste disposal is a nasty issue.  I view wind power  as nothing more than a scam, a money pit that has fleeced the public.  It is horribly inefficient, extremely high maintenance, and a low life expectancy (It was recently reported that 20yrs is current expectation, down from the original 50yrs), and the eventual removal of these dinosaurs will be equally expensive as when they were installed.  Solar Energy holds a lot of potential.  It is something that can be built into building construction, and not rely total on huge solar farms.  There is also geothermal, wave action, hydrogen fuel cell technology that can be improved and brought into the mix, and, who knows what new technologies the future will hold.
      Recently, all the information I access that relates to soil health makes reference to "taking cues from nature in developing farming practices", or "work with nature, not against it".  In my striving to learn about soil health I ran across a presentation that was intriguing.  It gave a pretty impressive picture and narrative on global desertification and it's implication.  DESERTIFICATION by Allen Savory.  The pic in this post is from that presentation.  Notice the light colored areas contrasted with the green areas.  The light colored areas are associated with "desertification".  The more I watch this video the more connected I become with the message.  The reasoning behind our operations move to a ULD farming system is incorporated in Allen Savory's message, but he goes farther.  Being a grain producer, I'm resisting the introduction of livestock into our operation; however, I understand the reasoning, their potential, and it's possible they will show up on our operation sometime in the future.

      My statement above, about agriculture worldwide being part of the problem stems from the fact that in any given year we leave a lot of ground in a nonproductive state that is radiating energy instead of capturing energy and converting it through photosynthesis to a crop.  Our practice of fallowing is an example of a poor land management practice.  The global increase of wild fires, along with the ever increasing number of people and their related spacial needs, are factors that influence desertification.  These man caused influences are gradually changing air currents related to high and low air cells across the globe, concentrating energy.  This concentrated energy is effecting the strength and location of storms.  Each of us, with our relatively small farming operation think that we are insignificant, so, what we do will not have any effect on the climate.  I'm beginning to realize that the mismanagement of our tiny amount of global resource combined with millions of other independent operations doing the same thing adds up to be a huge potential impact.  We need to rethink our attitude on how we manage our land so as to make a positive contribution to sequestering carbon, and reducing practices that promote desertification!!

 

CLIMATE

     This post is a bit off of my normal beat, but weather and how we understand it has a direct bearing on how we farm, now and in the future.   The pic shows a comparison with vegetation and land being a net carbon sink.  Agriculture has the capability to dramatically increasing carbon in the soil.   I ran into these videos featuring:
David Icke on climate change - hoax (17:38), David Icke is, along with other professions, a professional conspiracy theorist.  He comments on many issues around this juggernaut, "climate change", where I have reservations.   This is a very controversial subject with the two sides being well entrenched.  We are hammered, daily about our dependency on fossil fuels and being the cause of global climate change.  This video led me to:
Climate Change Fact/Fiction? (47:32), by Atmospheric Physicist, Richard Lindzen at MIT.  Richard Lindzen has been researching and writing opinions on climate change since 1961.  Lindzen is a very low key presenter.  In this forum he talks about temperatures, sea levels, CO2 emissions, the climate data, activists, political response.  He doesn't see anything to be alarmed about.

"Climategate"(4:59), featuring Richard A Muller, Professor of Physics at University of California at Berkeley.  This short presentation talks about climate data that a team of researchers falsified to stay in line with expectations.  Another presentation I found interesting is one by Steven F. Hayward given in 2014. 

A Funny Thing.....Climate Change (1:01:56)  Hayward is a scholar at the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley.  He gives some background on how this phenomena developed into the political animal of today.   One other presentation that I will list here is:

How To Green the Worlds Deserts (22:19), by a researcher of Biological Science, Allan Savory.  This presentation explains that increasing desertification is playing a big part in warming the earth and causing Climate Change.  Savory's presentation lines up well with information that I have been gathering for years, and is part of my interest in replacing chemical fallow or cultivated fallow with green fallow (cover crop).

        Currently, my position is:
---I believe in "climate change".  Our world is dynamic.  Climate is continuously transitioning.
---I do believe that humans have some influence on climate.   I believe that normal farming practices of yesterday and today are a negative influence.  Tillage, with every pass, releases CO2 and moisture to the atmosphere.  This has been known for 40+ years, but early on it wasn't associated with climate change.  Human activity is denuding the earth of plant material ranging from the destruction of tropical forests to us leaving land fallow.  When vegetation is removed, the buffer is removed, so the earth warms.  Add to this, population growth and associated expansion of urban areas and the infrastructure supporting that expansion.  Allan Savory has a compelling story of concern, action and results from different land management practices.

---I do believe there are groups/organizations that influence societies behavior.   I remember a quote by Senator Lyndon Johnson (before he became President Johnson), --"in politics there are no accidents.  If something happens it is because someone wanted it to happen."  Johnson was a very powerful, and manipulative Senator at the time.   I don't remember the specific event that prompted this statement but it was my introduction to "power politics", and the ability to manage/manipulate public attitude.  So, I do see a purposeful, one sided agenda here.  The previous mentioned videos make mention of several underplayed factors.  Fossil fuels are only a part of the perceived problem and probably a minor part.   My post of March 17, 20017 titled CLIMATE CHANGE goes into much more detail on cycles and phenomena effecting the earth's climate where we have no control.  Climate activists discount these cycles and events as insignificant.  I think they don't fit the agenda.

CLIMATE CHANGE

     This is the climate portion of the PNW weather prediction given at the Spokane Farm Forum and Ag Show last February featuring Dr. Art Douglas.
     In preparation for this post I found that I needed to bolster my vocabulary and knowledge about the Milankovitch Cycle. < Milankovitch Cycle >  It's one thing to listen and get the drift of what Douglas is saying, and it's something else to restate the information without attaching a 20min recording of the presentation, --so I'm not going to try!
      I do have a better understanding of why the media doesn't report this phenomena.  It's complex with a lot of interaction and timing of various facets, and, although there is a great body of data that backs up the Milankovitch Cycle, there are two phenomena that it doesn't adequately explain so it's still considered a theory.  Hence, the only thing the media can get their teeth into, and the public can understand, is all the CO2 we are dumping into our atmosphere through burning of fossil fuels.  We are bombarded with this "fact" daily.   It's the "chicken little" syndrome that won't go away anytime soon.  My thought is that fossil fuels will be the worlds principal fuel until it becomes scarce, because of economics and infrastructure world wide.  The money that was/is being spent on inefficient wind monstrosities should have been directed to advances in scrubbing and sequestering end material from burning fossil fuel.  Unlike wind, the money spent on solar technology appears to be a good investment, with efficiency and new technology being announced on nearly a monthly basis.

    [IN SUMMARY]  What I got out of this presentation is:  Human activity is contributing to our warming planet; however, it's insignificant compared to the effects of energy supplied by "Sun Spot Activity", and factors associated with the Milankovitch Cycle.  The data is starting to show a change. Is this change a flattening out, or a move to a down trend in temperature?  It may take a decade or two for that to become clear.  [My thought] --in the short term, (40-50yr), the planet will continue to warm, with some rise in ocean levels.  This is going to be devastating for population around the world living at sea level, and will effect food production.  This will, in itself, cause a lot of political unrest.  In the media there is a lot of handwringing and support for solutions based on chasing symptoms instead of solutions based on projected outcome, --moving populations and developing water storage for instance.  GMO technology will likely keep food production ahead of our shrinking productive land base.

 [ CLIMATE CHANGE PRESENTATION ]: Dr. Art Douglas has a Master's, in SST (sea surface temperature).  Three quarters of the earth is covered by water, hence, the oceans drive our weather.  Temperature change creates ocean currents and how they act.  This in turn moves temperature differentials around the globe effecting air temperature, and rainfall and whether CO2 is released or absorbed.  The oceans are the largest source, and sink, for CO2.  A little change in ocean temperatures makes a huge difference in Atmospheric CO2.   Since a significant part of his talk this year centered around climate change I have been waiting to see what would be written in the local papers.  So far, I haven't seen a word printed on the subject.  Douglas' statement at the beginning of his presentation was "he hoped we were at the end of politicizing the changing climate".  (I don't see that happening.)
      I'll go over a few points that he made and include pic's of some of his slide presentation.

      He started with three antidotal topics to set the stage.  I found these fascinating, but way to detailed to regurgitate here.  This is a snippet of his presentation.   IN SUMMARY, THERE ARE A LOT OF PROBLEMS WITH THE DATA.  Over time each innovation has resulted in the temperature being stepped up 1-3 degrees from the previous method.  These discrepancies are enough on their own to explain the temperature rise.  The following, three sources of change/discrepancy are discussed.

        In/around his yard, he has about an 80 foot elevation difference.  He put out three thermometers, top-middle-bottom, and found several degrees difference. I have noticed that as well.  In 30 feet elevation to the hill behind my house the temperature differential ranges from 1-3 degrees compared to the house.

        The SST gained a degree when data acquisition changed.  This data collection was mandated, starting in 1860.  At intervals mariners would toss a bucket into the ocean and then put a thermometer in it.  Between WWI & WWII, the mariners started taking the SST by induction.  This is where sea water was used to cool the ship propulsion system and they put a thermometer in the induction line to the engine.  That elevated temperature over the previous method by a degree.

        The NWS (national weather service) changed out their weather stations and went to electronic remote sensing.  I believe he mentioned that this was world wide in the early 2000's.  The old stations were read by humans and placed 4.5 feet above the ground.  The new stations are placed 20 feet above ground and remotely sent to the data collection facility.  I think Douglas mentioned that this created a change of about 3 degrees difference from the old readings.  When this change out was done, Douglas was able to acquire all of the thermometers from the Nebraska weather stations.  he did studies with these and found that there was a degree difference between the highest and lowest readings of these instruments.

       You get the picture, --world wide, there is a huge data base, taken by a lot of people taken over a long span of time with different methods employed.  To me this is a perfect scenario to start a cause and have data to back it up.

       Art Douglas is a strong advocate of the power of natural phenomena that originates with the sun and the orbits of planets, specifically earth and it's relationships with the sun and planets.  He does acknowledge that human activity plays a role.  Without saying so, he left me with the impression that human activity is a minor player in the drama of climate change.   The orbit of the earth around the sun changes shape over time.  These are cyclic.   The tilt of the earth changes over time and is also cyclic. 

This graph shows that the present time is the lowest temperature and CO2 levels for the last 300 million years of earths history.  We can't take comfort in that information because a level that can be devastating for us may not even show as a bump on this graph's time frame.  It does show how fragile our hold on existence may be.

 The Milankovitch Cycles consist of earths elliptical orbit around the sun  -- The earth's tilt as it circles the sun, which changes over time --The Precession is the wobble of the earth on it's axis.  At any moment in time, these three cycles, along with sunspots, interact and produce an effect on the earth.  These forces effect the earth in totality, as well as differences in points across the earth's surface from pole to pole.

Sun spots are flares of burning gas that extend great (and varying) distances from the surface of the sun.  On rare occasions, the energy from a flare reaching the earth is so intense that it interrupts communications and has shut down a power grid in the northeast US.   Intensity and frequency of sun spots effect our atmosphere and surface temperatures.

This graph displays what has happened over the past 400 years of Sunspot observations.

These models are predicting a cooling trend for the future.  One or two years ago, Dr. Douglas mentioned that data supporting the temperature trend line was starting to show a change.  Whether that was an indication of flattening out, or moving on to trend low, I can't say.

I struggle with this chart.  What I remember being associated with it is that the current data indicates that time has been lengthened out another 50K-100K years to the next major accumulation of ice.

Dr. Douglas' presentation was ended with this statement from a team of scientists in Denmark.