WHAT WE MAY EXPERIENCE IN 2016
Art Douglas from Creighton University is always a big draw at the Farm Forum in Spokane. Many people make farm decisions from his prognostications, --including us. This is how I interpreted his 2016 comments for the inland northwest.
---El Nino is here for a second year. It's very strong, but will start moving out in a couple of months.
---Not expecting any arctic blasts. These events will stay east of the Rocky's. Some cold temperatures, but not severe.
---late winter & spring looks good, with a little above average moisture, and average to cooler temperatures. The month of May, could be quite warm but with good moisture to get the crops through it. Putting up quality hay may be difficult, and harvesting in July may be problematic from rain showers. Pastures should be good.
---August is expected to be dry, so the majority of grain harvest in the Palouse should go well.
---Fall and winter is expected to be cool and wet. We should get a good start on the fall planted crops.
CLIMATE CHANGE:
---Current CO2 and temperature levels are not nearly as high as they have been at times in the past according to ice core samples taken from the Antarctic dating back 400,000 years.
---Oceans are tremendous CO2 sinks. When they warm, CO2 is expelled into the atmosphere. When they cool, they absorb CO2 from the atmosphere. The oceans, being warm are expected to start cooling.
---Sun flares/spots are decreasing so the energy coming to the earth is decreasing. This will have an influence on ocean temperature. There are indications that the planet temperature may be peaking; however, there will likely be a runout of another 10-15 years for this warming period (cycle).
---The Capital Press reported differently from what I heard. They reported that Douglas stated the 0.7 degree (C) increase widely reported the past two years was 50-50 between natural climatic variability, and man. I heard 0.1 degree of the 0.7, was probably man caused, with the remainder due to natural climatic variability, and sun energy variability.
---Have I mis-interpretated, or left out a significant point, leave a comment!
Sunday, February 7, 2016
Monday, February 1, 2016
Our Farms Historic Rainfall
I have recently put 18 years of rainfall data in a spreadsheet ( 1998 - 2015).
---14.67" is what it turns out to be our average yearly rainfall over the years, --with 9 years at or above, and 10 years at or below. (one point was counted in both, above/below). The graph indicates our Ewan/St.John farm is in the 13-16" rainfall zone, instead of the 15-17" as most maps have us. (Is this a real change from 1940-1970's)???
---Our lowest rainfall total was in 2002 with 10.31 inches.
---Our highest rainfall total was in 2006 with 18.35 inches
---Two years, 2015 & 2003, June received a trace, or no rain. June is a benchmark for us. Good rains normally translate to good yields, little rain translates to not so good yields.
---Six years, July received no rain.
---Five years, August had a trace, or no rain.
---June with more than 1.5 inches were (2014, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2005 ). These were great crop years, or, had the potential had not other climatic forces become involved, --for example, Nov. of 2013 had an event where high winds accompanied by a sudden drop in temperature severely damaged the 2014 winter wheat through out the Palouse. Most people had patches of good wheat, but the general yield was down approximately 25-30%,
---Our ULD system that incorporates the Shelbourne header and the CrossSlot drill is an attempt to lessen dependency on good June rains by reducing moisture loss through runoff and evaporation. 2014 was a great year to test the theory, but alas, the June 12 freeze ruined the potential of all our crops, both winter and spring. All surviving crops were delayed in maturity, and the unusually high heat of July & August caused further damage. The CrossSlot did all it was advertised to do, and the crops got a great start, but circumstances beyond our, or it's control lowered yields.
---Our rainfall tends to cycle up for three years, then, down for three years. (+/- ?)
---If that pattern holds we may rise through the average precipitation line in 2016, and give us, depending on the June rains, a good crop, both winter and spring.
---The charts below use the same data, but the lines attempt to show three different aspects: June rain, total rain received, average monthly rain received.
---14.67" is what it turns out to be our average yearly rainfall over the years, --with 9 years at or above, and 10 years at or below. (one point was counted in both, above/below). The graph indicates our Ewan/St.John farm is in the 13-16" rainfall zone, instead of the 15-17" as most maps have us. (Is this a real change from 1940-1970's)???
---Our lowest rainfall total was in 2002 with 10.31 inches.
---Our highest rainfall total was in 2006 with 18.35 inches
---Two years, 2015 & 2003, June received a trace, or no rain. June is a benchmark for us. Good rains normally translate to good yields, little rain translates to not so good yields.
---Six years, July received no rain.
---Five years, August had a trace, or no rain.
---June with more than 1.5 inches were (2014, 2013, 2012, 2010, 2005 ). These were great crop years, or, had the potential had not other climatic forces become involved, --for example, Nov. of 2013 had an event where high winds accompanied by a sudden drop in temperature severely damaged the 2014 winter wheat through out the Palouse. Most people had patches of good wheat, but the general yield was down approximately 25-30%,
---Our ULD system that incorporates the Shelbourne header and the CrossSlot drill is an attempt to lessen dependency on good June rains by reducing moisture loss through runoff and evaporation. 2014 was a great year to test the theory, but alas, the June 12 freeze ruined the potential of all our crops, both winter and spring. All surviving crops were delayed in maturity, and the unusually high heat of July & August caused further damage. The CrossSlot did all it was advertised to do, and the crops got a great start, but circumstances beyond our, or it's control lowered yields.
---Our rainfall tends to cycle up for three years, then, down for three years. (+/- ?)
---If that pattern holds we may rise through the average precipitation line in 2016, and give us, depending on the June rains, a good crop, both winter and spring.
---The charts below use the same data, but the lines attempt to show three different aspects: June rain, total rain received, average monthly rain received.
Conclusions (?): When I started this post three days ago, the goal was to state a few obvious points that stuck out in the 18 years of data, but as I got more into it, the more intriguing it became. I'm not going into any more detail than what's been stated above; other than to say that, I'm extremely glad we chose to upgrade to a ULD system. In the short time (4 years), I can visually see it is paying off. We are, and always have been in climate change. What that means for the future is argued daily. I'm convinced the Shelbourne and CrossSlot is the best option for meeting the challenges in the future.
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